The new regional energy players are Israel, Greece and Turkey and America needs to adjust its strategy accordingly.
Tectonic shifts are underway in the Eastern Mediterranean. Some pose growing threats to American interests and allies, others offer new prospects for stability and prosperity. Washington now must develop a coherent regional strategy that addresses these challenges and capitalizes on these opportunities.
Also, Turkey has severed its longstanding strategic link to Israel that helped form the bedrock of regional stability. It actively works to undermine Israel’s security, supporting radical Islamist groups in Syria, Gaza, Egypt and Libya. It is also moving closer to Moscow—including agreeing to buy advanced Russian S-400 air defense systems—and Tehran, while becoming more antagonistic toward Greece in the Aegean Sea and Egypt and Cyprus in the Mediterranean.
There are, however, some notable positive developments in the Eastern Mediterranean. The region boasts bountiful new offshore natural gas discoveries, which Israel, Greece and Egypt are already developing. They are enabling closer relations between Israel, Egypt and Jordan, and could eventually reduce European dependence upon Russian gas.
Greece’s turnaround is all the more remarkable for being led by former Communist Alexis Tsipras, whose strategic acumen clearly has been underestimated. And even if Tsipras loses power in this year’s elections, as looks likely, his initiatives are sure to be sustained by the center-right New Democracy Party, which traditionally is more pro-American.
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