The economic consequences of La Niña could cost the world $3 trillion over the next several years, with low-income tropical countries getting hit especially hard.
While the effects of El Niño are more concentrated in the tropics, other regions will feel the heat as well. The southwestern United States
Generally speaking, agriculture that’s vulnerable to changes in rainfall makes up a larger share of GDP for low-income nations, so they have relatively more to lose if the weather turns. Subsistence farmers in particular are at risk of not only losing their livelihood, but also not being able to feed their families. Things are especially precarious for farmers who lack irrigation systems, as the shock of drought is more immediate.
Previous calculations of El Niño economic losses were likely underestimates, Callahan says, because they just considered damage in the years that the phenomenon was active. But this new research finds that the effects can last up to a decade after warm waters dissipate. Government funds have to go to rebuilding infrastructure, for instance, instead of technological innovation. “So you get this sort of legacy of El Niño in depressed economic growth,” says Callahan.
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