Service industries have defied the sinking mood
the world economy has grown throughout 2019. Disappointing data, tumbling bond yields, the trade war between China and America and political crisis in Britain have all played a part. The only bright spot has been mostly buoyant stockmarkets. On April 9th thewill probably report a downgrade to its forecast for global growth this year, which in January stood at 3.5%.
Manufacturing’s woes can be blamed primarily on falling global trade growth. That is down partly to the trade war, and partly to Chinese policymakers’ attempts to reduce leverage, which slowed domestic growth late last year, curtailing demand for imports. The pain has been felt most in Europe, which is more exposed than America to emerging markets. It has been particularly acute in Germany.
China has turned to stimulus lately; some economists expect its economy to rebound in the second half of this year. In March its manufacturers reported their strongest month since last summer. That, and some strong American data, buoyed markets this week. Even if this proves to be a false dawn, for China to cause a global economic downturn would require its slowdown to become infectious not just across borders, but across sectors too.
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