Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman are duking it out in the AL Rookie of the Year race as the Mariners and Orioles compete for a playoff spot. NickSelbe takes a look at what’s going to be an exciting finish for the two young stars and their teams
, posting a .544 OPS in April with no home runs and 30 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances . From that point on, he’s been one of the league’s best players, ranking sixth among all outfielders in fWAR since May 1 and fifth in wRC+ . The only thing that’s slowed him down is a wrist injury that cost him the first part of August.
Rutschman did not break spring training with the Orioles after dealing with a triceps injury to begin the season. He spent 20 productive games in the minors before making his big league debut May 21, when he, too, struggled out of the gates. He hit .176/.256/.257 through his first 20 games before going on a tear immediately thereafter, posting a .936 OPS in his next 55 games.
Adding an extra element to this race is that both players are playing for young, exciting teams contending for postseason spots. From 2017 to ’21, the Orioles had lost more games than any other team and were projected to produce more of the same this season. after years of ineptitude, and once he got hot, so too did the O’s. They were 16–24 before Rutschman’s call-up and then went 11–12 during his initial struggles—better, but still not great.
Obviously, this is an individual honor, and unlike the MVP award is not conflated with team success when evaluating which player is most deserving. But narratives certainly play a role in any awards race , so with the postseason push looming, which player impacts his team’s winning the most? It turns out, they both do quite a bit, ranking first and second among AL rookies in win probability added, which weighs a player’s context-dependent production against how much their actions increase the team’s chances of winning. It’s Rodríguez holding the edge over Rutschman for now, a lead that holds up even if you account for Rodríguez’s advantage in plate appearances.
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