Since September 2021, the Texas Heartbeat Act has protected unborn children from abortion after a heartbeat can be detected—as early as six weeks of gestation.
While previous attempts in other states to enact heartbeat laws were struck down by courts, the Texas Heartbeat Act’s
The authors of the more recent study looked at monthly birth counts at the state level. Using statistical methods and monthly birth data from all 50 states, they estimated what the number of births in Texas would have been had the Heartbeat Act not been implemented. The result? There were nearly 10,000 more births in Texas over the observed period as a result of the heartbeat law. Those births are more than a statistic. Each one represents a precious, irreplaceable person.
The resulting model can then be used to create a synthetic counterfactual data trend for the treated observation. In other words, the model can predict what the trends in the data would have been if the policy change had not been implemented.
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