1/SIXES AND SEVENS
U.S. Dollar and China Yuan notes are seen in this picture illustration June 2, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration
The 3% yuan plunge so far in May is already putting investors to flight; the Institute of International Finance estimates equity outflows of around $600 million a day, totaling $4 billion in the past week and half. Further currency weakening may bring more of the same.The Federal Reserve seems so far to have discounted the trade war as something that could derail economic expansion.
Fed presidents from Richmond, Boston and Minneapolis have expressed concern whether a drawn out trade conflict that hurts the economy, might require a policy response. Interest rate futures are pricing in a 51% chance the Fed would lower its rate target in September. For December it’s 73%.It’s the biggest democratic exercise after India’s general elections, with 400 million people eligible to vote — European Union citizens go to the polls on May 23-26 to elect 751 lawmakers to the EU parliament.
U.S. consumer goods companies, a sector that includes retailers, have reported stellar Q1 results — I/B/E/S Refinitiv data shows more than 80% delivered consensus-busting earnings. But an unexpected fall in U.S. retail sales last month has raised question marks over consumer resilience. So with big-name department and chain stores Home Depot, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, and Target due to report results in coming days, investors will monitor what the firms say about the outlook.
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