Don’t forget to vote
In 1981, historian Allan Lichtman and the late Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok developed a model for predicting U.S. presidential elections. “The 13 Keys to the White House” was based on the results of elections from Abraham Lincoln to Ronald Reagan. It has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election ever since, with the exception of the 2000 Bush-Gore race.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. While the National Bureau of Economic Research has not officially declared the U.S. to be in a recession, public sentiment may say otherwise. The NBC News poll released this month asked registered voters whether “the Biden administration policies are helping you and your family, hurting you and your family, or are they not making much of a difference either way?” The results: 45% “hurting,” 25% “helping.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. We’ve seen protest encampments on college campuses, marches on freeways, takeovers of intersections, robberies that look like riots and parents raging at school board members. Two out of every three families hide the carving knives at Thanksgiving and the third calls off the dinner. I’m scoring this FALSE. The score is four to four.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Can you think of one? I’d say this key is FALSE. That’s six, enough to lose the White House. “13 Keys” co-creator Allan Lichtman reached a different conclusion. Lichtman, who wrote a book calling for Donald Trump to be impeached three months into his presidency, said in early July that the keys predicted Biden’s re-election. After Biden stepped down, Lichtman said the keys predicted the election of Kamala Harris.
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