Kyrgyzstan now faces the largest forecast drop in GDP of any nearby country
peace, proximity to Russia and Ukraine’s markets was a boon. In war, close economic ties have become burdensome. At the start of the year the World Bank expected Europe and Central Asia to grow by 3% in 2022, following the rebound from the pandemic. But that optimistic prediction has been replaced with a forecasted contraction of 4.1%, twice as deep as the recession induced by covid-19 in 2020.
The biggest blow is to the GDP of Ukraine, which the bank reckons could fall by 45.1%. It will take years for its population to recover, and forto be rebuilt. Russian GDP is forecast to shrink by 11.2% this year, largely as a result of Western sanctions. For other countries, the war will mean falling into another recession just as they recover from the pandemic. The World Bank forecasts that the economy of Belarus, which the West has sanctioned for its role serving as a launchpad for Russian attacks on Ukraine, will contract by 6.5% this year. Landlocked Moldova, hooked onFormer Soviet republics in Central Asia will suffer from a shrivelling of remittances from Russia.
The news is not all bad. Soaring energy prices could help Azerbaijan, a major hydrocarbons exporter. Its oil and gas sector is already near capacity, but it hopes to nearly double deliveries of natural gas to Europe in the next four or five years via its new Trans-Anatolian pipeline, as Western countries seek to wean themselves off Russian energy.
Some central European economies also stand to gain from Ukrainian labour. The World Bank‘s GDP forecast for Poland, thefleeing the war, has fallen by only 0.8 percentage points. For now Poland is battling double-digit inflation and strained public finances. But it hopes that those Ukrainians who stay—which the UN’s refugee agency reckons could amount to fully three-quarters of the 2m who have so far arrived—will help plug its 200,000 job vacancies.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Britain weighs up 'tanks to Kyiv' deal as Russia says it wants all of southern UkraineBritain is considering sending its Challenger 2 tanks to Poland so Warsaw can then transfer its own armour to Ukraine.
Read more »
Ukraine morning briefing: Five developments as Russia strikes 58 military targets overnightPlus: Satellite images reveal apparent mass grave near Mariupol and Ukrainian fighters battle on in the besieged port city
Read more »
Russia-Ukraine war: satellite images appear to show mass graves near Mariupol; Zelenskiy says Ukraine needs $7bn a month in aid – liveMariupol mayor says more than 20,000 residents have been killed with most bodies removed; Zelenskiy says Ukraine will need ‘hundreds of billions of dollars’ to recover from the war
Read more »
Russia plans to hold sham independence vote in southern Ukraine, Zelenskiy saysUkraine president warns citizens against handing over personal information, as satellite images of mass graves emerge near Mariupol
Read more »
Russia plans to hold sham independence vote in southern Ukraine, Zelenskiy saysUkraine president warns citizens against handing over personal information, as satellite images of mass graves emerge near Mariupol
Read more »
Tesco to limit cooking oil purchase as Russia-Ukraine war chokes UK food industryCONSUMERS in the UK will have to optimise the usage of sunflower oil as Tesco is going to ration the purchase of cooking oil amid the Ukraine-Russia war, reports suggest.
Read more »