Our Sun vs. Lynx predictions for this Game 5 finale expect Connecticut to keep it close throughout and cover the 4.5-point spread.
The Lynx have outscored the Sun by a total of three points through four games in this series, and tonight's finale will echo that parity. Both teams will leave it all on the floor with a chance to face the New York Liberty, so expect a close game.After a grueling four games, the Connecticut Sun meet the Minnesota Lynx in Minneapolis for a winner-take-all Game 5 with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.
And while three of the four games have been decided by seven or more points, the Lynx have only scored three more total points in the series. Neither team has dominated, and key runs throughout have evened things up to force a winner-take-all Game 5. Three of the seven games between these two teams in 2024 have been decided by three or fewer points. The road team has covered in five of seven, and Connecticut is 2-1 ATS in three games at Target Center this season. This has been a tightly-contested playoff series after a hard-fought regular-season series, and 4.5 points is a generous number to give a veteran Sun team looking to make the Finals for the third time in six seasons.
Alyssa Thomas has been phenomenal for Connecticut during this playoff run, and I expect the 32-year-old leader to do all she can to get her team back to the Finals. Through six postseason appearances in 2024, Thomas is averaging 16.2 points, 8.7 rebounds and 10 assists, good for 34.9 PRAs. She’s hit the Over on this prop in five of six, and it’s hard to bet against her in this pivotal spot. Thomas has played in four winner-take-all playoff games in her career and averaged 20.8 points, 7.
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