A new study says warming will fuel more supercells in the United States and that those storms will move eastward from their current range
killed more than 20 people in Mississippi on Friday."What we're seeing in the longer term is actually occurring right now."
Past studies have been unable to forecast supercells and tornadoes in future climate simulations because they are small-scale events, especially tornadoes, that global computer models can’t see. Ashley and Gensini used smaller regional computer models and compensated for their reduced computing power by spending two years running simulations and crunching data.
In moderate warming – less warming than the world is headed for based on current emissions – parts of eastern Mississippi and eastern Oklahoma are projected to get three more supercells every two years, with eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, western Tennessee and eastern Georgia getting one more supercell every other year.
The moderate warming simulation projects 61% more supercells in March and 46% more in April, while the more severe warming scenario has 119% more in March and 82% more in April. They see double-digit percentage point drops in June and July. The eastward shift also puts more people at risk because those areas are more densely populated than the traditional tornado alley of Kansas and Oklahoma, Ashley and Gensini said. The population coming under more risk is also poorer and more frequently lives in mobile or manufactured homes, which are more dangerous places in a tornado.
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