The Twins are 4.5 games back from Cleveland in the AL Central, but the Guardians might be catchable.
At 58-37, the Cleveland Guardians have the best winning percentage in the American League and the second-best mark in Major League Baseball. Heading into the second half, they're 4.5 games ahead of the Twins in the AL Central race. The Guardians have been excellent, and their +85 run differential suggests they aren't a fluke.
However, if you dig a bit deeper into some other numbers, you may find that Cleveland doesn't have the profile of a typical top-five team. A Twitter account called the "MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter," which attempts to determine how lucky teams are based on the expected outcomes of their hitting profiles in a given game, has the Guardians as — by far — the luckiest team in the league this year. The Twins, conversely, are slightly on the unlucky side.
The point is this: Cleveland, which has gone 18-17 since a 40-20 start, might be catchable in the AL Central.will be to get healthy, perhaps add some pitching before the deadline, and seize the moment in their eight remaining games against the Guardians. This should be a fun second half.
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