A viral weather map predicting a foot of snow in the Southeast sparked debate about the reliability of long-range forecasts and the allure of 'snow pornography' on social media.
It’s no secret that people in the South have a fascination with snow. It is not very common, relatively speaking, so any mention of the word prompts posts, shares, and a full range of emotions. In the midst of Sunday football, I have watched closely as meteorologist colleagues try to be a credible vaccine for a viral post about snow in the southeastern U.S. over ten days from now.
What’s the fallout from such posts? A weather map indicating the possibility of a foot or more of snow in parts of the South, including the Atlanta area, by the second week of January has gone viral. The site is awesome, and one that I follow routinely too, so it is not surprising how widespread the post has been. Friends have been messaging me all day asking if it is true. Such maps and information are certainly available to anybody, which creates a challenge for the meteorology community. I witness all types of platforms posting long-range snow forecasts. Colleagues like James Spann in Alabama and Brad Panovich in North Carolina routinely push back on what we call “snow pornography.” It plays on the snow lover’s desire, and the social media culture rooted in clicks, views, or shares. When I saw the model information being shared, I cringed. To the site’s credit, they mentioned that such information could change. However, the context was missing, and it was probably better not to post it at all. Atlanta News First meteorologist Ella Dorsey commented on, “This is just one run of the Euro model. The next run showed 0.2 inches of snow for the same period.” She went on to explain that a weather pattern shift to colder temperature is expected, but information this far out is not reliable for precipitation forecasts. Meteorologist Tyler Mauldin also said in the same thread, “A little early to be posting! Forecasting snow, it’s hard enough three days out, much less 10 days.” As I recently, “These ‘pick your favorite mode scenarios’ often disappear in the next model run..
FORECASTS SNOW SOCIAL MEDIA METEOROLOGY VIRAL
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