Mike Santoli breaks down what investors are worrying about heading into the second half.
It's hard to complain about the stock market's first half performance and how it sets investors up for the rest of 2024 – hard, but not impossible. A 15% year-to-date total return in the S & P 500 is the 21 st best run through June since 1900, according to Goldman Sachs. Among years when the index was up at least that much at this point, the rest of the year was up 72% of the time for a median further gain of almost 9%.
It measures the market-based expected volatility of large index members against that of the S & P 500 itself. This is both an observed pattern and an active tactical strategy. The so-called dispersion trade – shorting index volatility while owning single-stock volatility typically via options – has grown popular. It goes without saying that a burst of market-wide stress would upend such trades, to unknown knock-on effect.
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