A new research led by NSF NCAR reveals that Kelvin waves can predict increased hurricane activity weeks in advance.
Scientists have noticed that hurricanes form in clusters for decades, followed by several weeks of little to no hurricane activity.In a breakthrough, new research has discovered a way to predict periods of increased hurricane activity weeks in advance more accurately,
“If weather forecasters can detect a Kelvin wave over the Pacific Ocean, for example, then they can anticipate that a few days after the wave, there will be an uptick in“This would help them communicate with emergency managers and local governments who could prepare for the likelihood of an active hurricane period and alert the public. This research has the potential to save many lives.
To overcome this, Rios-Berrios and her colleagues used a novel combination of computer modeling tools to confirm that Kelvin waves boost hurricane formation. This next-generation computer model can simultaneously capture fine-scale weather phenomena and global-scale atmospheric patterns. The simplified world acts like a lab, making it easier to isolate the effects of Kelvin waves on hurricane formation.
The research team measured the number of days between hurricane formation and Kelvin wave crests to investigate the connection between Kelvin waves and hurricanes.
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