Let's break down what has gone right (and wrong) for the four NFL teams that have seen their postseason chances improve most.
, with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here:, which projected each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs before the season and has done so again after each ensuing week.
Miami has exceeded expectations on offense this season, but part of the FPI's optimism about its postseason chances undoubtedly relates to what has happened in the AFC East. The Bills, while the Buffalo offense has averaged just under 20 points per game over the past three weeks. The Bills look vulnerable, and the Dolphins will like their chances in their Week 18 rematch.and New England have looked lost for most of their 2-5 start.
As you might have noticed, that has been rectified in 2023. The Dolphins already have seven runs of 30-plus yards in seven games, giving them three more than any other team. Achane has four of those seven, producing the sort of stat line you see when the video game difficulty level is too low; he's averaging 12.1 yards per carry. No one can keep that up over a full season, but Achane already is one of the league's most explosive players and a threat to take any carry to the house.
As we saw Sunday, Jackson is still a threat to run inside the red zone. He has 11 carries inside the 20-yard line this season after averaging just under 18 per season over the prior four campaigns. He has scored on five of those 11 carries, including a fourth-down conversion against the Lions. And he has scrambled a league-high 32 times, 10 more than any other quarterback. He's on pace to rack up 78 scrambles for 454 yards, both of which would be career highs.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have three of their next four games at home, and their lone road game is a trip to face the Cardinals this week. Coach John Harbaugh's team should be favored to win all four, and if the Ravens get to 9-2, they would be well positioned to compete for the top seed in the AFC. They'll want to bank wins now because they will face the Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers over the final month of the season. Jackson has beenin December each of the past two seasons.
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