Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: United States 2-Year. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
The only aspect of consistency in the market’s outlook for rate cuts lately has been pushing the expected date forward. Recent history falls in line with this trend and September is now seen as the earliest date for policy easing.a roughly 71% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce its current 5.25%-5.50% target rate at the Sep. 18 meeting, based on CME data.
“In short, this is the reality of a data-dependent Fed. With the inflation data exceeding expectations to start the year, it comes as little surprise that the Fed would push back on any urgency to cut, especially given the strong activity data.”has run up recently, but has been in a holding pattern over the past five trading sessions through yesterday’s close .
The next major release for US inflation data is more than a week away – Friday, Apr. 26, when the government publishesprice data for March. Consensus forecasts are expecting a mixed bag for the one-year change: a slightly higher rise headline PCE to 2.5% and a tick down for
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