A tropical disturbance entering the Gulf could impact Southeast Texas Tuesday through Thursday.
The National Hurricane Center has issued its first forecast for Potential Storm Six , and it is predicted to pass by or over the upper Texas coast as a hurricane on Wednesday. Watches are likely to come for our coast later this evening.What will likely soon be "Tropical Storm Francine" continues to gather strength in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. According to the National Hurricane Center, current development odds on the storm becoming a tropical depression or stronger are up to 90%.
While we likely will be dealing with widespread rains next week, the odds of a named system impacting Texas remain low.We are watching five disturbances and all five have low chances of development. Low pressure just off the Texas coast has a 10 percent chance of development. Regardless of development, this system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to our coastal areas Thursday.
The closest to home being a low pressure system just off the Texas coast which is currently bringing us our active pattern of weather. While there is a 20% chance of development with that system, the overwhelmingly likelihood is that it will just continue to spin showers and storms in our direction through early next week without ever becoming a named system.
Aside from the disturbance in the Gulf this week, we are also monitoring tropical waves about to emerge from Africa that could spin up ahead of Labor Day weekend somewhere over the Atlantic or Caribbean.A low pressure system moving through the northern Gulf of Mexico will increase rain chances for us as we kick off the work week, but it's unlikely that we're talking about any tropical development.
Climate outlooks through the end of the month hint at activity ramping up across the Atlantic as we head into September.Ernesto has strengthened to a hurricane once again with winds of 75 mph and gusts up to 90 mph. Ernesto will stay over the Atlantic Ocean into early next week as it charges north, making a close pass by Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Strong swells and rip current remain a risk along the eastern seaboard because of Ernesto.
flooding and power outages to Bermuda. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents is expected along the U.S. East Coast later this week despite Ernesto remaining well off the coast.Ernesto is now a hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic. It is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by Friday then potentially make a direct hit on Bermuda Saturday. Big swells and strong rip currents will impact the East Coast for several days as Ernesto stays far away from the U.S. coastline.
However, a new outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates the tropics really picking up in the second half of August with two new potential development zones drawn in the Gulf of Mexico. While there is no specific threat to Texas at this time, it's just a reminder that we are entering the most active time of the hurricane season and need to all stay aware in the weeks ahead during this busy back-to-school season.
We also continue to monitor the tropical wave that will be moving west into the Caribbean by Tuesday. This has a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days.Debby makes landfall along the Big Bend of Florida early Monday morning. From there, it will turn northeast and may emerge in the Atlantic just off the Georgia and South Carolina coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. It is also possible Debby could stall out along the Carolina coast, which could lead to a risk for major flooding.
While Debby will no impact us here in Texas, we have our eyes on another tropical wave that is attempting to strengthen as it approaches the Caribbean. For now the National Hurricane Center puts the development odds of this system at just 20%, but that number could increase in the coming days. A track like what we're seeing from this system could eventually bring a system into the Gulf of Mexico, but it's far too early to know if the storm will form, or where it could end up.
As for the rest of the tropical, there's nothing else the ABC13 Weather Team is monitoring at this moment.Beryl is still a tropical storm centered over Walker County with winds of 60 mph and gusts of hurricane-force strength of 90 mph. The central pressure has started to increase and the eye of Beryl is a little less organized than it was at landfall. Beryl has picked up speed too, now moving north/northeast at 14 mph and could be out of Southeast Texas by 5 p.m. Monday.
Additionally, a Tornado watch is in effect until 10 a.m. for Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, Liberty, Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties. Thunderstorms in the outer bands of Beryl could be strong enough to produce quick tornadoes as they move inland.Beryl is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph but gusts have now increased to 85 mph.
There are some important updates to the weather alerts. All of Harris, Fort Bend, Waller and Austin are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. This is an expansion of the previous warned area along the coast. Tropical storm-force gusts between 45 to 55 mph are possible with some wind gusts reaching up to 80 mph at times over the next 36 hours.Beryl remains at tropical storm, retaining its strength in the latest update.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Matagorda County. A Tropical Storm warning is now in effect for Brazoria, Colorado, Wharton, Galveston, southeastern Harris, southern Liberty and Chambers counties. Hurricane to tropical storm force winds, respectively, are expected in the area with a warning. These conditions will begin as early as Sunday evening and last through Monday afternoon.
As of 3 p.m. Saturday, A Flood Watch has been issued for much of Southeast Texas for Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. Excessive rainfall and runoff from Beryl could flood rivers, creeks, streams and flood-prone areas. 5 to 10 inches of rain, possibly more in spots, is expected to fall within the watched area.As of 10 a.m. Tropical Storm Beryl is beginning to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Beryl currently has a pressure of 997mb with max wind speeds of 60mph.
Currently landfall along the gulf coast is just south of Brownsville in northern Mexico. However, there are some signs that landfall could shift farther north into the Texas coast, which is something we're closely watching. Finally, the hurricane center now has Beryl strengthening once again when it moves into the Bay of Campeche. Beryl will likely weaken while over land in the Yucatan to a tropical storm, but then could strengthen to a Category one hurricane as it makes its northern turn towards the Mexican and Texas Coast this weekend.
Behind Beryl, the other tropical wave in it's wake still has a 70% chance of forming over the next 7 days. From there the hurricane will continue to track west through the Caribbean and towards the Yucatan Peninsula by the end next week. From there the future path of Beryl is still uncertain. Beryl could potentially track into the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche into the first weekend of July, but it is still too early to tell if this storm will pose any threat to the Texas coast.
Lastly, closest to home is 94-L, which will be moving into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. That system will gradually turn into Mexico and will not directly impact Southeast Texas.Tropical Wave 95-L in the open Atlantic is becoming more organized today. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next two days and an 80% chance of doing the same over the next week.
There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we're monitoring for development too. It has a 50% chance of development this weekend.Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico Thursday morning and is now a tropical depression over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Alberto's winds, rains and enhanced tides extend well north of the center and will continue to have impacts on southeast Texas coastal communities until Thursday evening.
There is also still a low chance for development north of the Bahamas over the next few days, with the risk extending to the Southeast U.S. coast.A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has been designated as Potential Storm One. It is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Alberto by Wednesday. It is currently heading north but should make a westerly turn toward Mexico on Wednesday. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm Thursday morning.
There is also an area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that needs to be watched for potential development. Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and gusty winds early next week.The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Six Tropical Storm Houston Tx Hurricane Francine Path Tropical Storm Six Path Tropical Storm Coming To Louisiana Tropical Storm Watch Houston Latest On Tropical Storm In Gulf Tropics Update Tropical Storm Houston Houston Storm Tropical Storm In Houston Hurricane Houston Houston Weather Hurricane Francine Texas Weather Texas Storm 15280008
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