'Us anti-Brexit folks should feel pretty self-satisfied now. Well, we’re not.' via PostOpinions
By Robert J. Samuelson Robert J. Samuelson Columnist focusing on economics Bio Columnist March 17 at 7:58 PM Those of us who have always thought that Brexit, Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, was a bad idea should be feeling self-satisfied and vindicated now. Well, we’re not; at least, this observer isn’t. The reason is obvious. Many of the things that we feared would happen have happened, or might still. Worse, the consequences aren’t confined to the United Kingdom.
A new study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics reviewed the forecasts of 12 economic models and found that only two of them predicted gains from Brexit. Other studies forecast losses of up to 8 percent of gross domestic product . The study also warns that “a no-deal ‘crash out,’ ” a reversion to higher tariffs rather than a “soft Brexit” of continuing the present no-tariff situation, “would have serious negative short-run impacts on the U.K.
Meanwhile, the chaos, confusion and contradictions of Parliament’s efforts to find a tenable Brexit policy must seriously undermine confidence in Britain’s political system and its ability to attract future investors, domestic and foreign. It’s not that they have changed their minds about the value of open trade so much as the public has turned more skeptical and hostile to trade expansion. A less supportive public in turn alters the political climate, making governments more nationalistic and leading to more, not fewer, trade barriers. Multinational firms become more cautious in making new investments, because they can’t know how much open trade will be tolerated.
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