Opinion: Everyone is underestimating Trump. It could hurt Democrats and Republicans alike.
A Trump flag at a rally for President Trump in El Paso last month. By David Byler David Byler Data analyst and political columnist focusing on elections, polling, demographics and statistics Email Bio Follow Data analyst and political columnist March 8 at 8:00 AM We live in an era of horribly misinformed political decision-making.
Models like this don’t have pinpoint accuracy and they don’t take the electoral college into account. But they’re useful for ballparking the results. And the data suggests that a good economy, a not-amazing Democratic opponent and the advantages of incumbency might be enough to get Trump close or carry him over the finish line.
But I think the conventional wisdom is discounting the possibility that Trump’s approval improves enough for him to win and overestimating the likelihood of total collapse. Current job approval doesn't tell us much Obviously, there’s another side to this situation — Trump has a lot of catastrophe potential. A recession could hit, and his numbers could take a truly intense dive. Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III could come up with something truly damning. One of the other many investigations into Trump could also blow a hole in his support.
Democrats could underestimate Trump and incorrectly think they have more room to move to the left than they really do. I want to be clear here — this isn’t a “Back To The Center, Democrats” take. I think a Democratic Party that adopts a people-versus-the-powerful ethos, heads left on economics and pushes on issues where Trump has been especially un-populist could work. But not every left-leaning position is as popular as marriage equality.
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