Opinion by George F. Will: If DeSantis wonders why polls show that he has regressed in his costly competition with Donald Trump, he might rethink his evident decision to leapfrog the former president on the spectrum of loutishness.
But the fundamental challenge for DeSantis, as for his rivals courting the Republican nominating electorate, is to keep his eyes on the prize: the presidency.that 80 percent of the states — 40 of 50 — have voted for the same party’s presidential nominee in at least the last four elections, “a level of consistency unmatched through the 20th century.”
This, says Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report, suggests “a very narrow battleground for the Electoral College in 2024.” Currently, 235 electoral votes are rated Lean/Likely/Solid Republican, and 247 rate as Lean/Likely/Solid Democrat. “Just four states are considered Toss-Ups: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
For Republicans to carry Wisconsin for the third time in nearly 40 years they must, in the words of one analyst, “stop the bleeding in the ‘burbs.” There, moderates — especially college-educated women — are decisive. The key to Arizona is Maricopa County , which only two major statewide Republicans have won since 2016. Republicans have lost ground in Atlanta’s most important suburban counties, Cobb and Gwinnett, which Trump in 2020 lost by 14 points and 18 points, respectively.
So, the Republicans’ 2024 nominee might want to avoid bloodthirsty language about visiting violence on political adversaries. The moderate voters who decide our elections will flinch from candidates who talk as though they come from a milieu in which
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