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Former President Donald Trump gained eight percentage points among 2020 swing state voters who cast ballots for President Joe Biden,In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, the poll asked voters who they would vote for if the presidential election was held today.
Among those who voted in 2020 for either candidate, Biden lost eight percentage points to Trump, the data showed, while Trump only lost three percentage points to Biden, a Trump net gain of five percentage points in less than four years.In addition, among the 18 percent of the sampled electorate who did not vote in 2020, 49 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2024. Only 32 percent said the same for Biden, a 17-point difference.
The poll’s hypothetical question did not take into account third-party candidates. However, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won an average of ten percent throughout the six swing states and appeared to take support equally from both Trump and Biden.Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik.
If Biden wins all blue wall states, in essence, he would win reelection without winning any of the Sun Belt states. “But if he loses all four competitive Sun Belt states, Biden can’t afford to drop any of the Blue Wall states,” Steven Shepard,. “And given the size of Michigan and Pennsylvania , it’s difficult for Biden to cobble together any Electoral College majority without them, even if he manages to hold Arizona or Nevada.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst.
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