Despite inflationary pressures, the banking crisis and other macro-economic issues that are impacting consumer spending, the National Retail Federation is expecting sales to grow between 4 percent and 6 percent in 2023.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” he said. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
The price increases will be felt most sharply among lower-income consumers, who will focus the majority of their spending on necessities. Many of these shoppers are trading down in brand and price and focusing more on sales to stretch their household budgets, said Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer of NRF.
Turning to jobs, the NRF said that slower economic activity and more-restrictive credit conditions are expected to result in a deceleration in job growth in the coming months. The group projected that the unemployment rate is likely to exceed 4 percent before 2024. The Washington-based organization unveiled its sales projection during the third annual State of Retail & the Consumer webinar on Wednesday.
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