Iowa political veterans say this year's nominating contest is especially turbulent, with a number of key variables almost impossible to predict. Here are 5 things they're watching:
The campaigns'"ground game" — getting their supporters out to caucus and having skilled staffers at the precincts — only matters on the margins, but that could be the whole game in a tight race.
"What might 'change' is what's invisible until caucus night — what kind of organization the campaigns are building," former Clinton 2016 campaign manager Robby Mook said."It takes months to build. You can't slap it together overnight." "People are still trying to make up their mind," Nilles said."They have their top two or three, but you're going to see a significant amount of people making up their mind here in the last few weeks."
Kerry himself was a surprise winner of the caucuses in 2004, surging to victory as Democrats rallied behind someone they viewed as the safest choice to take on then-Republican President George W. Bush.The most important number in the caucuses is 15 percent. That's the threshold of support candidates need to reach to be deemed"viable" in each precinct, otherwise their supporters will be forced to disband and"realign" with another candidate or join the undeclared group.
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