New NOAA research predicts an increase in active Atlantic hurricane seasons

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New NOAA research predicts an increase in active Atlantic hurricane seasons
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In a new study, NOAA and partner researchers project an increase in the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, leading to more active and inactive hurricane seasons and less near-normal seasons.

Tropical cyclones are among the most deadly and costly natural disasters that affect the United States and many other countries each year. This has led the scientific community to prioritize improving tropical cyclone prediction and the understanding of how tropical cyclone activity has changed and will change in the future.

, several atmospheric and oceanic conditions must be met: a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm ocean waters , thunderstorm activity, and low vertical wind shear which are wind velocity differences between the top and the bottom of the hurricane. Higher wind shear serves to knock down and discourage the development of a hurricane.

“The historical year-to-year variability in hurricane seasons is much larger than any projected future trends in hurricane activity,” said Hosmay Lopez, Ph.D., NOAA oceanographer and lead author of the new study. “While the scientific consensus is for a future reduction of 2 storms per year, the number of named storms in the North Atlantic revealed much larger swings between 28 named storms in 2005 and 8 in 2014.

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