Silver's model gives Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have reached their highest level since July, according to the latest projections from Nate Silver's election model.Silver's forecast model gives Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 39.7 percent, with the former president taking 277 electoral votes to the vice president's 260.
The latest surveys conducted by Wick and Emerson College between August 25 and August 29 showed Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania. Another recent survey by Trafalgar Group found the former president 2 points ahead in the battleground state. Meanwhile, a Patriot Polling survey conducted between September 1 and 3 put Trump 1 point ahead in the state.Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is most likely to be the tipping point state in this election, according to FiveThirtyEight.
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