A tripling of global trade restrictions over the past year shows 'embracement of industrial policy willy-nilly everywhere,' and is a big risk to global growth.
Kristalina Georgieva, International Monetary Fund managing director, said a soft landing is likely for the global economy as rate cuts "are coming" but the medium-term economic outlook is disappointing.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an ISO 20121 Greening Ceremony during the IMF-World Bank Group spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC on April 15, 2024.
By everywhere, Georgieva meant mostly the three largest economic powers in the world: the U.S., China and the European Union. "Half of the industrial policy measures come from these places and when we analyze ... we can find justification for one-third," she said. She also noted that the Russia-Ukraine war taught many countries about the importance of supply chain security and the need to diversify supply sources.
In the short-term, things look good, with the IMF recently upgrading its growth outlook to 3.2%. The recent performance of the global economy has outperformed expectations, as well, led by the U.S., with global GDP gaining 6.7 percent over the past two years — almost a full percentage point higher than the IMF forecast back in 2022.
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