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Will Taylor Swift get engaged in 2024? Will JD Vance be replaced as veep nominee? Despite its questionable legality, hundreds of millions in crypto are being wagered on events like these on Polymarket.that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Trump in November? On a blockchain-based website called Polymarket, Harris's chances, according to the thousands betting, are put at 39%, while Trump’s are at 59%, with Michelle Obama and RFK Jr. at 1%.
“Polymarket effectively takes what otherwise would be an Internet yelling match and turns that into a market where you know the person who's right wins. We want our forecast to become ubiquitous and mainstream,” says Coplan from Polymarket’s posh penthouse office in New York City’s Soho.by his NYU film professor mother, Coplan says he was an Internet nerd. At 14, he was experimenting with building a cryptocurrency mining rig, and in 2014 he participated in the Ethereum presale .
“Prediction markets are a powerful force to counter misinformation,”says Marc Bhargava, managing director at General Catalyst who personally invested in Polymarket's seed round, in a statement to. “They are fueled by people putting their money where their mouth is to back the most accurate sentiments.”
Polymarket doesn’t charge fees, and Coplan remains elusive about how the platform will generate revenues, but hints that fees are coming. “We're focused on growing the marketplace right now and providing the best user experience,” he says. “We'll focus on monetization later.” In January 2022, the CFTC ordered Polymarket to pay a civil penalty of $1.4 million for operating in the U.S. without a registration. As part of a settlement, the company promised to wind down services in the U.S. while continuing to operate abroad.
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