This article analyzes the upcoming UFC fight between Jake Matthews and Francisco Prado, highlighting the value in betting on Prado to win by decision. The author discusses Prado's potential, Matthews' recent decline, and the statistical likelihood of a decision outcome.
Our Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado predictions suggest notable value in the underdog, particularly if the fight extends to a decision. This matchup presents a significant test for Francisco Prado , who faces the considerably older and more experienced Jake Matthews . Prado , at just 22 years old, enters his fourth UFC bout, while the 30-year-old Matthews embarks on his 21st walk into the UFC Octagon.
While Matthews' experience will undoubtedly be an asset, the -250 moneyline odds are an overadjustment. Matthews has been trending downwards, posting a 3-3 record in his last six fights. Moreover, his victories have come against lower-tier opponents. The first of these three wins was against Andre Fialho, who suffered losses in his final four UFC appearances before his release in 2023. His second win during this period was against Darrius Flowers, who holds a 0-3 record in the UFC since securing a contract through Dana White's Contender Series. His third and final victory in the past four years came against Phil Rowe, who is also on a two-fight losing streak. In essence, Matthews hasn't secured a quality win in over five years.That being said, while I'm not fully convinced by Prado's +190 moneyline odds, I see substantial value in exploring the method-of-victory market. Prado's odds for different victory scenarios are as follows: Let's address the less likely option first and eliminate the submission prop. Prado's 16/1 odds to win by submission are a significant long shot. Both fighters primarily rely on striking, making a submission victory improbable. Now, if you favor the underdog, there is exceptional value in his decision prop at +575, particularly when compared to his KO/TKO odds of +450. Oddsmakers anticipate a decision, with -155 odds suggesting the fight will go the distance. Furthermore, Prado is moving up to the 170-pound division, and he likely won't encounter the same power Matthews has faced previously. Matthews hasn't been knocked out in nearly a decade. Prado's most promising path to victory lies in accurate striking and utilizing his youth to outlast Matthews in the later rounds.Prado hasn't achieved consistent success in the UFC yet, but he remains a young, developing fighter with considerable potential. Meanwhile, Matthews appears to have already reached his peak. At nearly 6/1 odds, betting on the younger fighter to outpace and outland Matthews in a fight expected to go the distance offers excellent value
UFC Matthews Prado MMA Betting Predictions Underdog Decision
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