The Great Lakes region has been hit with some of the fastest‑rising fuel prices in the country.
likely to see some of the biggest declines, according to fuel‑market analyst Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. The Great Lakes region has been hit with some of the fastest‑rising fuel prices in the country, driven largely by a cluster of refinery outages that sent wholesale costs surging.
Michigan saw aEven brief shutdowns or threats of escalation have pushed global crude prices higher in recent weeks. That means the expected 20‑ to 40‑cent drop at the pump could evaporate quickly if the conflict intensifies or if the strait becomes unstable again. AAA data underscores how severe the recent surge was across the Great Lakes before refinery conditions began to improve.
In Michigan, the average price for regular unleaded hit $4.86 a gallon on Monday after soaring more than 85 cents in a week, according to AAA. Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin saw similar spikes, with AAA reporting statewide averages last week of $3.992 in Indiana, $4.189 in Michigan, $4.087 in Ohio, $3.933 in Wisconsin, and $4.450 in Illinois.reported that U.S. gasoline inventories fell from 228.4 million barrels to 222.3 million, while production dipped to 9.8 million barrels per day, tightening supply just as regional outages intensified price pressure.
De Haan noted that the Great Lakes saw some of the fastest and steepest increases in the country, with wholesale gasoline, diesel and even jet fuel surging as multiple refineries struggled to stay online. AAA’s national data also shows how unusual the region’s spike was.
As of late last week, the national average stood at $4.229, the highest since July 2022, but still well below the levels seen in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, which all approached or exceeded $4.79 at midweek. Those numbers provide the backdrop for why De Haan is now urging drivers not to rush to fill up.
With refinery issues easing and wholesale prices falling, the region is positioned for a meaningful retreat—but AAA’s data shows just how elevated prices remain heading into that expected decline. If refinery operations continue to normalize, Great Lakes drivers should see noticeable price drops by mid‑May. Analysts say the trend is favorable—but fragile. Any escalation in Middle East tensions or new refinery disruptions could quickly halt or reverse the expected declines.
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