New research shows the number of farms in the world is declining naturesustai
Farm number and size are deemed important for a variety of social and environmental outcomes, including yields, input use efficiencies, biodiversity, crop diversity, climate change and concentration of power in food systems. Using a model incorporating theoretical drivers of the creation and consolidation of farms within countries, I historically reconstruct the number of farms on Earth over 1969–2013 and predict their future evolution.
I show that under current development trajectories, the number of farms globally will probably decline from the current 616 million in 2020 to 272 million by the end of the twenty-first century, with average farm size doubling.
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