Daily News | Let’s play Phillies fact/fiction: Alec Bohm an All-Star? Aaron Nola a concern? Gregory Soto a bust?
The difficult thing about opening day is that it does not prove anything, but it’s all we have to go on. We learned that in 2022, just like we do every year. I still have the headline from last year’s season-opening win over the A’s seared in my brain.Two months later, they were seven games under .500 and firing their manager.
There are two lessons here. First and foremost, the next time you think that I was wrong about something, remember that I’m probably just operating on a different time horizon. Secondly, opening day is pretty much worthless as a leading indicator.on Thursday afternoon was completely meaningless. There’s a good chance that, six months from now, we’ll look back at this game see plenty of things that foreshadowed the season to come. We just have no idea if the final score is one of those things.
Allow me to introduce the Relevantometer , a handy device that detects elevated levels of relevance within opening day facts. The higher the number, the higher the probability that the performance in question will prove to be relevant within the big picture of the season. It’s like a Breathalyzer, except the arresting officer is the one who is drunk.: Aaron Nola hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in four straight starts dating back to last postseason.
The Phillies don’t need Nola to be Scherzer. They need him to be Nola, and that’s exactly who he looked like for his first three innings. That said, they’ll be much better off if he’s the version of Nola who was on the mound last season versus the one from the season before. In 2021, he failed to make it through five innings in 7 of his 32 starts, and he pitched less than six in 15. I don’t think his five-run meltdown in the fourth on Thursday is cause for too much alarm.
It might take Thomson a little while to figure out how best to use Soto. He might end up being a guy who needs a whole inning. With men on base last year, he had nearly as many walks as strikeouts . With runners in scoring position, opponents had a .441 on-base percentage, compared to .313 with the bases empty. He stranded 8 of the 10 runners he inherited last season. Before that, though, he’d allowed 40% of them to score.
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