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First, it’s because the strike seems to have balanced effective deterrence alongside the mitigation of civilian casualties. On the deterrent side of the equation, Israel targeted Hezbollah military operations commander Fuad Shukr inside the terrorist group/political party’s Beirut stronghold. Considering that Shukr appears to have been in an apartment building at the time, it is probable he was killed .
Israel needed to hit a high-profile target inside Beirut to underline its willingness to escalate in response to Hezbollah’s prior escalation. Lesser retaliation would have been perceived by Hezbollah as a signal of Israeli trepidation amid heavy pressure from the Biden administration to avoid escalatory actions. It would also have signaled fraying Israeli deterrent resolve to Iran in an environment where Iran is pursuing increasingly bold nuclear enrichment activities.
Shukr’s likely demise thus represents overdue justice for Americans as much as it does justice for the innocent children Hezbollah killed on Saturday. This dual U.S.-Israeli interest narrative carries powerful strategic value for Israel. After all, the Israeli government knows that the Biden administration is desperate to avoid further escalation in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict that has been underway since Hamas’s atrocities last October.
More importantly, it creates political pressure on President Joe Biden and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris to support Israel if Hezbollah now further escalates the conflict. In essence, Israel has put Harris in a position where she must choose between criticizing Israel for the fallout of killing one of America’s greatest terrorist adversaries, risking her being painted as weak on terrorism by former President Donald Trump, or offering support for Israel.
Top line: Assuming civilian casualties are low to nonexistent, this strike will constitute a proportionate and necessary response to Hezbollah’s escalation., it is manifestly good news for both Israel and America that Shukr is dead.
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