An isolated and humiliated Russia is the biggest danger of 2023, political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group said Tuesday, unveiling its annual list of top geopolitical risks.
“A humiliated Russia will turn from global player into the world’s most dangerous rogue state, posing a serious security threat to Europe, the United States, and beyond,” wrote Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group’s president and founder, and Cliff Kupchan, the firm’s chairman, in the report.
“Defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine, increasingly staggered by sanctions, left without leverage over the EU or the United States, with little to lose from further isolation and Western retaliation, and facing intense domestic pressure to show strength, Russia will turn to asymmetric warfare against the West to inflict damage and weaken NATO unity, rather than employ overt aggression that depends on military and/or economic power that Russia no longer has,” Bremmer and Kupchan wrote.
Kremlin-affiliated hackers are likely to increase cyberattacks on Western businesses, governments and infrastructure, they said. Russia is also likely to intensify its offensive against Western elections by supporting and funding disinformation and extremism.
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