DUBAI, May 29 — Iran fires the starting gun this week on an election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, whose death in a helicopter crash could complicate efforts by the...
People gather, on the day Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gives a televised address, at a rally commemorating Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian who were killed along with other officials in a helicopter crash, in Beirut, Lebanon May 24, 2024.
“The next president is likely to be a hardliner unwaveringly loyal to Khamenei with a background in the Revolutionary Guards. Someone with an unblemished background and devoid of political rivalries,” said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz.Registration for candidates opens tomorrow, although that is only the beginning of a process that will see hopefuls vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog body that disqualifies candidates without always publicising the reason.
To ensure the winner is a diehard Khamenei loyalist, it is likely the upcoming election will be dominated by hardliners with outlooks similar to his, the insiders and analysts say.But restricting the choice on the ballot is likely to dampen voters’ interest and keep turnout low, dealing an unwelcome blow to the prestige of the 45-year-old Islamic Republic.
Including low-key moderate candidates on the ballot might be a way to attract a larger turnout, some analysts say. “This cycle of low voter turnout, which has ensured hardliner victories in past parliament and presidential elections, can be changed .... But I have my doubts about any potential political opening,” he said.However, the reformists’ electoral strength remains unclear, as some voters believe they failed to bring greater freedoms in the periods when they were in power in the past decade.
A new president would be unlikely to make any change to Iran’s nuclear or foreign policy, both of which are controlled by the supreme leader.
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