The core PCE has inched down since February. Now, technical effects are reversing the trend.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is expected to show that prices continued to climb in July, splintering the downward trend seen in recent months.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Nowcast estimate of core PCE inflation for July was 4.23% as of Wednesday. The Cleveland Fed produces an estimate of the current rate of inflation in a given month or quarter before the official CPI or PCE inflation data are released. Both headline and core PCE measures for July are likely to remain well above the Fed’s target of 2%. “Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated, and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability,” Powell said last week.
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