Consumer prices climbed at a 3.7% annual rate in August, but growth in the core figure, not counting food and energy, fell to 4.1% from 4.3% previously.
Consumer prices climbed at an 3.7% annual pace in September, matching the rate set in August as shelter and other services prices remained strong. But growth in core prices, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories, decelerated from August to a 4.1% annual pace, from 4.3% previously.
Economists forecast the consumer price index climbed at a 3.6% annual pace in September, consensus expectations from FactSet show, marking a tick down from the 3.7% pace in August. That would mark the first month since June that headline price growth slowed. On its surface, a September inflation report in line with expectations would look like welcome news for the Fed, with the annual pace of both core and headline inflation decelerating from the previous month. But the underlying details could present something of a mixed picture, given the risk that a cooling headline inflation number could end up masking worrisome heat below the surface.
Core services excluding housing—a measure the central bank has been especially focused on in recent months—could remain similarly strong, with Citi economists forecasting a 0.5% climb during the month of September. The U.S. economy, they wrote, is “exiting the inflation soft-patch.” They warn, too, that the path forward for further inflation declines after September is only growing more difficult. Used car prices may be finished declining, and other goods prices are more or less holding steady.
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Producer price inflation comes in a little hotter in September, highest annual rate in five monthsGreg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington. Follow him on Twitter grobb2000.
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Inflation rises to 2.2% in September in producer price indexZachary Halaschak is an economics reporter at the Washington Examiner. Before moving to Washington, he worked in Alaska, covering politics, government, and crime for the Ketchikan Daily News. While there, Zach won the Alaska Press Club’s second-place award for best reporting on crime or courts for his coverage of a local surgeon’s alleged murder. He graduated from the University of Richmond in 2017 and is originally from Marco Island, Florida.
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