After a loss to the M's in the series opener on Thursday, Shane Bieber looks to right the ship for Cleveland tonight.
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.In what’s expected to be a pitching duel, it’s difficult to give either side a huge advantage. Still, I believe Cleveland and Shane Bieber hold the edge in the starting pitching department Friday. Bieber’s 3.45 xERA and 2.83 FIP hold a noticeable advantage over Logan Gilbert’s 4.26 xERA and 3.78 FIP.
Both starting pitchers have performed admirably, but it’s clear to me where I give the advantage. As far as each team's lineup goes, Seattle holds a slight advantage in recent performance. In the month of August, the Mariners rank 14th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+, while the Guardians check in at 18th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+.
The Guardians have been road warriors, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. They’ve been pretty hot in general, posting a 12-5 mark across their last 17 games, including a 9-4 record against right-handed starters. The Mariners have been in fine form in their own right, going 39-18 in their last 57 overall and 7-2 in their last nine home games against a right-handed starter.
This is a very tight handicap, and the betting line reflects that as it’s essentially a pick'em. Both teams are treating every game with importance given the playoff implications that are on the line, and each club has some positive factors supporting a play on their side. What it boils down to for me is this: Bieber is the better starting pitcher. The Guardians are 15-8 in games that he starts, and he’s posted a solid 3.00 ERA on the road this season. Gilbert has also struggled at T-Mobile Park, posting a 4.06 ERA at home.
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