Goldman Sachs sees a 'risk of a setback in the summer' for S&P 500
Goldman Sachs strategists maintain a positive outlook for the second half of the year, anticipating a slight growth increase, inflation normalization, and central bank cuts.
Thus, Goldman Sachs has shifted to a neutral stance across assets on a three-month horizon but remains mildly pro-risk for 12 months, favoring overweight positions in equities and commodities. Still, strategists expect a higher risk of a market correction rather than a bear market for the second half of the year. Historically, the S&P 500 experienced significant drawdowns only when equities’ cycle growth score fell below zero, typically around recessions.
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