Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 20% from 25%
- Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% following the latest weekly jobless claims and retail sales reports.
"We have now shaved our probability from 25% to 20%, mainly because the data for July and early August released since August 2 shows no sign of recession," Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on Saturday. Thursday's jobless claims report showed number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-month low in the previous week, while separate data revealed on the day that retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in July.
He maintains the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, but did not rule out a 50 bps cut if the jobs report falls short of expectations.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors.
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