Gold prices are making strides as US real yields fall back. However, unless gold prices break the downtrend from the March and August swing highs, it’s too soon to call a short-term bottom.
at the end of last week has helped gold prices regain their footing as the calendar turns towards the middle of November. Gold prices were able to rally +2.22% last week, in turn warding off a potential breakdown to fresh yearly lows in the wake of the November Fed meeting. What was a double bottom may now be a triple bottom, suggesting that the lows may have been found.
Nevertheless, there is still wood to chop, as they say. Fundamentally, the decline by the US Dollar tracked a drop in December Fed rate hike odds, even though a 50-bps rate hike is still discounted. More importantly, US real yields have not fallen back, with the US 10-year real yield sitting at 1.717% today – not far off from its yearly high of 1.815% set in mid-October.
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