Global crude demand could see a bigger surge than widely expected in 2023, says one of the world's top oil traders.
Global demand for crude oil could see a bigger surge than traders and analysts have penciled in for 2023 as China fully reopens its economy and the world puts the COVID-19 pandemic behind it, one of the world’s top oil traders argued Thursday.
“If demand came back to trend in 2023, that would mean a demand growth of 4.6 mbd vs 2022, way above most analysts expectations of 1-2 mbd demand growth,” said Pierre Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital, in a Twitter thread. He noted that from 2019 to 2023, 35 million new EVs will have been sold, representing a loss of 600,000 barrels a day of oil demand. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also delivered a shock, Andurand said, which could deliver a 300,000 barrel a day hit to demand.
Oil futures went on a wild ride in 2022. A spike following Russia’s late February invasion of Ukraine sent the U.S. benchmark CL00 to a nearly 14-year high above $130 a barrel in early March. Crude prices subsequently tumbled, with fears of a global slowdown or recession stoked by aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.
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