Record gas prices and shipping rates, along with supply constraints, could push Wednesday's CPI for September above consensus expectations and to the highest...
Traders and investors are bracing for a reading on consumer inflation on Wednesday that has the potential to exceed expectations, just as optimism over a global recovery is slipping away.
Until recently, many traders and investors have been giving central bankers the benefit of the doubt that inflation will ultimately remain under control, once pandemic-related dynamics such as supply and labor shortages start to subside.
The range of economists estimates for Wednesday’s year-over-year headline consumer-price index number are between 5% and 5.5%, with a consensus of 5.3% that matches August’s headline CPI reading. That’s surprising because anecdotal reports of labor and supply shortages have only worsened in September, while average hourly pay has gone up, energy prices have been surging, and consumer expectations are shifting.
Forecasters are entering a period in which few, if any, economic models may be able to accurately assess where the U.S. is going with inflation. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecasts for global growth in 2021, while reducing its estimates for growth in the U.S. and number of other countries this year, with the exception of the euro area, India and Russia.
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