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Global consumption of coal is set to remain largely stable this year and the next as surging electricity demand in key economies will likely offset the rapid expansion of renewables such as solar and wind, the International Energy Agency said in a recent market report.
In its last publication, the Agency previously predicted a decrease in demand in 2024, with a moderate decline thereafter. However, this forecast, it says, required two conditions: a recovery of hydropower generation in China after years of low rainfall, and a slowdown in Chinese electricity demand growth; the latter of which did not materialize.“The continued rapid deployment of solar and wind, combined with the recovery of hydropower in China, is putting significant pressure on coal use.
Coal use has also been contracting significantly in the United States in recent years, but stronger electricity demand and less switching from coal to natural gas threaten to slow this trend in 2024, it adds.In 2025, the IEA estimates global coal demand to enter a trend reversal after four years of growth, decreasing slightly by 0.3% to a total of 8.71 billion tonnes.
In 2024, coal production in China is moderating after two years of staggering growth. In India, the push to boost coal production continues, with a supply increase of around 10% expected in 2024. In advanced economies, coal production is in decline, broadly reflecting demand.
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