Global food system emissions imperil Paris climate goals NatureClimate
. All other properties are as default. Uncertainties exist within the model associated with the field’s current knowledge of climate and carbon cycle processes, radiative forcings and indirect aerosol effects. The various calibration methods used by MAGICC determine the best parameterization from a wide variety of sophisticated models, but inherent uncertainties within these more comprehensive models will be translated into MAGICC’s results.
The first 22 scenarios account for warming impacts due to: all natural and anthropogenic forcings; sustained food consumption rates based on five separate population projections and one constant population projection ; and the isolation of the carbon dioxide emissions from dietary consumption, the methane emissions from dietary consumption, the nitrous oxide emissions from dietary consumption, total emissions from non-rice grain consumption, total emissions from rice consumption, total...
We also investigated six mitigation scenarios: universal implementation of technologically feasible production improvements; the global adoption of a healthy diet; a 50% reduction in retail-stage food waste; a 50% reduction in consumer-stage food waste; full decarbonization of the electricity sector; and the implementation of all five mitigation actions simultaneously. Each of these mitigation scenarios was run five times, assuming one of the five population growth scenarios.
The warming associated with the emissions of each scenario must be isolated from that associated with all natural and anthropogenic sources. We thus first subtracted the total emissions of all gases associated with each simulation from the total RCP8.5 emissions in the all-forcing scenario driven by all natural and anthropogenic forcings (equation (
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