North Korea is likely to milk the border crossing by a U.S. soldier for propaganda purposes but will probably not be able to gain political leverage, analysts and a former North Korean diplomat said.
Pyongyang may even end up paying a lot to keep U.S. Army Private Travis King in a gilded cage, they said.during a tour of the tightly controlled Joint Security Area on the border between the two Koreas.
Analysts said discussions over the soldier's fate could see some of the first diplomatic engagement between North Korea and the United States in years. But they see little chance the incident will affect stalled denuclearisation talks or crack the North's lingering isolation following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Much will depend on whether North Korea views it as a good propaganda opportunity, or whether it wants to focus on the "illegal" nature of the crossing and treat him as a criminal with bad intentions, said Rachel Minyoung Lee of the U.S.-based Stimson Center. When a U.S. soldier defects, North Korea has to create a security and surveillance team for them, and arrange an interpreter, a private vehicle, driver and lodging, he said.
"They treat Western citizens dramatically different from how they treat their own citizens," Lankov said."Their conditions are better not only than the average North Korean prisoner, but of the average North Korean citizen."
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