The former president has now lost the popular vote in two consecutive elections and could struggle to win in 2024.
However, the former president is still a candidate with a lot of baggage that could outweigh his advantages in three years' time. Though at the moment it seems he might sail through the primary process, the general election could prove his undoing.At this point, former President Trump is very much a known quantity for voters. He's been a leading figure in national life since at least 2016 and though he still grabs headlines, many Americans may have become inured to his behavior.
"In both elections, Trump offered little in new policy other than to roll back his predecessor's actions, largely by way of a snappy slogan. Recent elections in other western democracies have shown an increasing frustration with populism: if policy comes back onto voters' radar, Trump is likely to be outflanked."Trump has now lost the national popular vote twice - first in 2016 to former Secretary of Stateand then to President Biden in 2020.
"Biden may get his infrastructure and economic recovery through in time to hold on to Congress in the midterms," said Mark Shanahan."In '24, as ever, voters will look to the economy and its impact on their wallets to dictate their voting preference. "Trump does not base decisions on refined estimates of probabilities. He knows the outcome he wants and expects to get it," Quirk said.
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