The parallels between 2009 and today ought to be enough for European policymakers to study the events of 14 years ago. The conclusions they might draw are sobering
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskBesides the antics of French workers, Mr Erdogan and Ms Swift—a feature of just about every year, not just 2009 and 2023—the parallels ought to be enough for European policymakers to study the events of 14 years ago. The conclusions they might draw are sobering. For the sensation of having narrowly averted disaster felt in early 2009 turned out to be misplaced. Europe thought it had weathered the effects of the global financial crisis.
If 2023 is, like 2009, merely the eye of the storm, what horrors might await Europe on the other side? One depressing possibility is a variant replay of the euro-zone crisis. The flaws in the single currency that caused a run-of-the-mill recession to degenerate into something far graver after 2010 have never been fully addressed.
Having lived through it, policymakers are alive to a rerun of the euro saga and will have ideas on how to fend it off. More likely the next crisis will fall under the category of “things that will look obvious in retrospect” and could have been fathomed ahead of time. The mere possibility of an isolationist Republican winning the White House next year—either an ideological clone of Donald Trump, or the man himself—is one possibility.
Whatever shape Europe’s next crisis comes in, it will be exacerbated by divisions within the bloc. After 2009 it was the German-led “core” pitted against the Club Med “periphery”. The dividing line this time separates the eastern flank of the continent from the’s original members in the west. Impatience has festered in Poland and the Baltics over the cautious approach taken by Germany and France in helping Ukraine.
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