As the calendar clicks over into 2020, POLITICO Europe’s editors predict the major tensions that will shape the new European year
As the calendar clicks over into January 2020, POLITICO’s editors predict the major tensions that will shape the coming year. Spoiler: The outlook isn’t rosy — and Brexit isn’t done yet.If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. Protectionism will no longer be a dirty word in EU policymaking. After free-trading Britain leaves the EU, France and Germany will quickly shunt Brussels toward an industrial policy based on state support, central planning and European champions.
Finance officials and economists look with wary eyes to China’s shadow banking system. Alternative sources of credit, away from conventional banks, have boomed along with the economy. Officials have not taken the measure of the phenomenon with any degree of confidence. As China’s economy wobbles, that credit looks shaky. Even a small uptick in losses can wipe out lenders with thin financial cushions.
With the U.K. now all but certain to leave the EU on January 31, that leaves the really hard question — what kind of relationship the U.K. wants to have with the EU — to be solved in a punishingly tight timetable by the end of December. The effort to clean up is exposing deep fissures between the greener West of the Continent and the coal-dependent East.will dominate the EU calendar — affecting everything from financial regulations to chemicals rules, airplane taxes, pollution standards for cars and the bloc's trading relationships with the rest of the world.program means that big chunks of it will get passed — but it’s going to cause some serious fights this year.
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