EUR/USD: Break below parity is likely, could trigger a plunge to 0.95 on a 1 to 3M view – Rabobank – by MSalordFX EURUSD Currencies Banks
“We continue to see downside potential in EUR/USD as linked to distinct bullish USD and bearish EUR factors. The outlook for theeconomy over the winter is undeniably linked to energy supply. It has been our central view for some months that the Eurozone economy will suffer a mild recession over the coming winter. This assumes some continuation of gas supply to end-users in the region.
“Both Daly and the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy minutes have suggested that the Fed could favour a ‘raise and hold’ strategy, suggesting thatlonger through next year and beyond relative to the levels the market has been expecting. This is not good news for equity bulls; however, it is supportive for the medium-term outlook for the USD. We retain of the view that the USD will remain well supported against a broad base of currencies on a 6 month view.
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