EUR/PLN to drift down to around 4.65 by end-2023 – Commerzbank Poland EURPLN Banks
LN-negative arguments pointing towards rising EUR/PLN rates in 2024, economists at Commerzbank report.“We forecast the Euro to appreciate further through the rest of 2023, but weaken once again during 2024. Given the Zloty’s high-beta relationship to the Euro, we see EUR/PLN drifting down to around 4.65 by the end of 2023 as inflation moderates globally, which will alter perceptions about Poland’s negative real interest rate.
“Inflation data now seem to support the doves and afford the central bank the luxury to continue with a negative real interest rate. But eventually, inflation may not moderate back to target easily, hence we see 2024 as a potential Zloty-negative period.” If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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